14 Noviembre - 2018

Kim Jong, Un is doing what he said he would. Kim Jong, Un día está haciendo lo que dijo que haría.

Como señaló WorldView la semana pasada, las conversaciones entre Estados Unidos y Corea del Norte se han estancado.

As Today’s WorldView noted last week, talks between the United States and North Korea have hit a rut. Now a new report from a respected Washington think tank that identified hidden North Korean missile bases has sparked fresh debate about Pyongyang’s trustworthiness.
 
These bases — and the activity at them — seem to show that North Korea continues to prepare for a potential nuclear war despite the historic summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June. There have also been reports that North Korea is still producing missiles and nuclear material. All of this, along with Pyongyang’s reputation for cheating in prior agreements, has created a minor panic over whether Kim deliberately deceived the United States about his willingness to dismantle his nuclear program.
 
Given the high stakes of the negotiations, it’s worth examining the allegations of North Korean deception: What has Kim actually said he would do with his nuclear weapons program? And why are claims of North Korean deception so worrying?
 
On the first question, the answer is a lot.
 
President Trump reaches to shake hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12. (Evan Vucci/AP)
President Trump reaches to shake hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12. (Evan Vucci/AP)
 
Kim kicked off 2018 with a New Year’s Day speech, one that offered the first hint that Kim was open to negotiations after a year of weapons testing and increasingly hostile rhetoric from both Pyongyang and Washington. But there was another part of the speech that seems just as important in hindsight. Kim hailed the supposed completion of its nuclear weapons development and said it was time for a new goal.
 
“This year, we should focus on mass-producing nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles for operational deployment,” Kim said. “These weapons will be used only if our security is threatened.”
“Kim himself proclaimed that they no longer need to test parts anymore and will just mass-produce weapons," Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said to Today’s WorldView. North Korea has never publicly repudiated these comments, and the United States has never clearly stated that Kim rejected them when he met with Trump in Singapore.
 
On Monday, in response to the Center for Strategic and International Studies report, Today’s WorldView reached out to a number of experts to ask whether the continued work at North Korean missile sites, as well as other reports that North Korean is expanding its missile arsenal, would violate the agreement reached between Kim and Trump in Singapore.
 
All of them agreed — often quite emphatically — that it did not. “Kim hasn’t broken any promises," said Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. "Instead, he’s making good on one of them — to mass produce nuclear weapons.”
 
As such, it’s not surprising that North Korea would still be manning secret missile bases, or even producing new missiles or nuclear weapons. “Even though they’re violating all U.N. Security Council resolutions, North Korea didn’t break any promises with Trump because there’s no nuclear deal in place yet with Washington — there’s nothing that prevents them from expanding their nuclear arsenal,” Duyeon Kim said.
 
“Like any other nuclear weapon-possessing state, North Korea is refining the facilities and procedures associated with operating nuclear forces," Ankit Panda observed in an analysis for NK News this week.
 
So if North Korea is doing what it said it would be doing, why are allegations of North Korean deception so worrying? Because they reveal how differently the United States and North Korea perceive what happened in Singapore, a gap that could sink any diplomatic progress.
 
Trump himself has consistently portrayed North Korean denuclearization as a fait accompli. But North Korea, many analysts believe, sees getting rid of its nuclear weapons as the last in a long series of peace-building measures that need to be taken — if it even happens at all.
 
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Kim Jong Un is doing what he said he would
 
As Today’s WorldView noted last week, talks between the United States and North Korea have hit a rut. Now a new report from a respected Washington think tank that identified hidden North Korean missile bases has sparked fresh debate about Pyongyang’s trustworthiness.
 
These bases — and the activity at them — seem to show that North Korea continues to prepare for a potential nuclear war despite the historic summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June. There have also been reports that North Korea is still producing missiles and nuclear material. All of this, along with Pyongyang’s reputation for cheating in prior agreements, has created a minor panic over whether Kim deliberately deceived the United States about his willingness to dismantle his nuclear program.
 
Given the high stakes of the negotiations, it’s worth examining the allegations of North Korean deception: What has Kim actually said he would do with his nuclear weapons program? And why are claims of North Korean deception so worrying?
 
On the first question, the answer is a lot.
 
President Trump reaches to shake hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12. (Evan Vucci/AP)
President Trump reaches to shake hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12. (Evan Vucci/AP)
 
Kim kicked off 2018 with a New Year’s Day speech, one that offered the first hint that Kim was open to negotiations after a year of weapons testing and increasingly hostile rhetoric from both Pyongyang and Washington. But there was another part of the speech that seems just as important in hindsight. Kim hailed the supposed completion of its nuclear weapons development and said it was time for a new goal.
 
“This year, we should focus on mass-producing nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles for operational deployment,” Kim said. “These weapons will be used only if our security is threatened.”
 
“Kim himself proclaimed that they no longer need to test parts anymore and will just mass-produce weapons," Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said to Today’s WorldView. North Korea has never publicly repudiated these comments, and the United States has never clearly stated that Kim rejected them when he met with Trump in Singapore.
 
On Monday, in response to the Center for Strategic and International Studies report, Today’s WorldView reached out to a number of experts to ask whether the continued work at North Korean missile sites, as well as other reports that North Korean is expanding its missile arsenal, would violate the agreement reached between Kim and Trump in Singapore.
 
All of them agreed — often quite emphatically — that it did not. “Kim hasn’t broken any promises," said Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. "Instead, he’s making good on one of them — to mass produce nuclear weapons.”
 
As such, it’s not surprising that North Korea would still be manning secret missile bases, or even producing new missiles or nuclear weapons. “Even though they’re violating all U.N. Security Council resolutions, North Korea didn’t break any promises with Trump because there’s no nuclear deal in place yet with Washington — there’s nothing that prevents them from expanding their nuclear arsenal,” Duyeon Kim said.
 
“Like any other nuclear weapon-possessing state, North Korea is refining the facilities and procedures associated with operating nuclear forces," Ankit Panda observed in an analysis for NK News this week.
 
So if North Korea is doing what it said it would be doing, why are allegations of North Korean deception so worrying? Because they reveal how differently the United States and North Korea perceive what happened in Singapore, a gap that could sink any diplomatic progress.
 
Trump himself has consistently portrayed North Korean denuclearization as a fait accompli. But North Korea, many analysts believe, sees getting rid of its nuclear weapons as the last in a long series of peace-building measures that need to be taken — if it even happens at all.
 
 
“Trump seems not to understand that he did not negotiate a ‘deal’ in Singapore,” Frank Jannuzi, the president of the Mansfield Foundation and an Asia expert, wrote on Twitter. “He negotiated only an ‘intent to negotiate.’ The hard work has yet to commence."
 
It has not. After the bonhomie between Trump and Kim faded, working-level meetings between the United States and North Korea foundered. North Korea has pushed for concessions such as a formal end to the Korean War and sanctions relief, and it has even threatened to restart testing.
 
Accusations of dishonesty and a subsequent air of distrust have derailed many previous attempts to find common ground between Washington and Pyongyang. Certainly, North Korea’s reputation for obtuseness and disregard for the truth is well-earned. But so far, North Korea has kept to the vague requirements agreed to in Singapore.
 
And if there’s someone confused about what that summit meant, it doesn’t appear to be Kim.
 
Kim Jong, Un is doing what he said he would
 
Como señaló WorldView la semana pasada, las conversaciones entre Estados Unidos y Corea del Norte se han estancado. Ahora, un nuevo informe de un respetado think tank de Washington que identificó las bases ocultas de misiles de Corea del Norte ha provocado un nuevo debate sobre la confiabilidad de Pyongyang.
 
Estas bases, y la actividad en ellas, parecen mostrar que Corea del Norte continúa preparándose para una posible guerra nuclear a pesar de la histórica cumbre entre el presidente Trump y el líder norcoreano Kim Jong Un en junio. También ha habido informes de que Corea del Norte todavía está produciendo misiles y material nuclear. Todo esto, junto con la reputación de Pyongyang de hacer trampa en acuerdos anteriores, ha creado un pequeño pánico sobre si Kim engañó deliberadamente a los Estados Unidos sobre su disposición a desmantelar su programa nuclear.
 
Dada la gran importancia de las negociaciones, vale la pena examinar las acusaciones de engaño de Corea del Norte: ¿qué ha dicho Kim en realidad que haría con su programa de armas nucleares? ¿Y por qué son tan preocupantes los reclamos de engaño norcoreano?
En la primera pregunta, la respuesta es mucho.
 
El presidente Trump se acerca para darle la mano al líder norcoreano Kim Jong Un en Singapur el 12 de junio. (Evan Vucci / AP)
El presidente Trump se acerca para darle la mano al líder norcoreano Kim Jong Un en Singapur el 12 de junio. (Evan Vucci / AP)
 
Kim inició el 2018 con un discurso en el Día de Año Nuevo, uno que ofreció el primer indicio de que Kim estaba abierto a las negociaciones después de un año de pruebas de armas y una retórica cada vez más hostil de Pyongyang y Washington. Pero hubo otra parte del discurso que parece igual de importante en retrospectiva. Kim elogió la supuesta finalización de su desarrollo de armas nucleares y dijo que era hora de un nuevo objetivo.
 
"Este año, deberíamos centrarnos en la producción en masa de ojivas nucleares y misiles balísticos para el despliegue operativo", dijo Kim. "Estas armas se usarán solo si nuestra seguridad está amenazada".
"El mismo Kim proclamó que ya no necesitan probar partes y que solo producirán armas en masa", dijo Duyeon Kim, un miembro adjunto del Centro para la Nueva Seguridad de Estados Unidos, a WorldView de hoy. Corea del Norte nunca ha rechazado públicamente estas comentarios, y los Estados Unidos nunca han declarado claramente que Kim los rechazó cuando se reunió con Trump en Singapur.
 
El lunes, en respuesta al informe del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales, Today's WorldView se acercó a varios expertos para preguntar si el trabajo continuo en los sitios de misiles de Corea del Norte, así como otros informes de que Corea del Norte está expandiendo su arsenal de misiles, violaría el acuerdo alcanzado entre Kim y Trump en Singapur.
 
Todos estuvieron de acuerdo, a menudo bastante enfáticamente, en que no fue así. "Kim no ha roto ninguna promesa", dijo Jeffrey Lewis, un experto en no proliferación en el Instituto de Estudios Internacionales de Middlebury en Monterey. "En cambio, está cumpliendo con uno de ellos: producir armas nucleares en masa".
Como tal, no es sorprendente que Corea del Norte todavía esté utilizando bases secretas de misiles, o incluso que produzca nuevos misiles o armas nucleares. "A pesar de que están violando todas las resoluciones del Consejo de Seguridad de los EE. UU., Corea del Norte no rompió ninguna promesa con Trump porque aún no hay un acuerdo nuclear con Washington, no hay nada que les impida expandir su arsenal nuclear", dijo Duyeon Kim.
 
"Como cualquier otro estado que posee armas nucleares, Corea del Norte está refinando las instalaciones y los procedimientos asociados con las fuerzas nucleares operativas", observó Ankit Panda en un análisis para NK News esta semana.
 
Entonces, si Corea del Norte está haciendo lo que dijo que haría, ¿por qué las acusaciones de engaño de Corea del Norte son tan preocupantes? Porque revelan lo diferente que perciben Estados Unidos y Corea del Norte lo que sucedió en Singapur, una brecha que podría hundir cualquier progreso diplomático.
 
Trump himself has consistently portrayed North Korean denuclearization as a fait accompli. But North Korea, many analysts believe, sees getting rid of its nuclear weapons as the last in a long series of peace-building measures that need to be taken — if it even happens at all.
 
El propio Trump siempre ha representado la desnuclearización de Corea del Norte como un hecho consumado. Pero muchos analistas creen que Corea del Norte considera que deshacerse de sus armas nucleares es la última de una larga serie de medidas de consolidación de la paz que deben tomarse, si es que eso sucede.